Marin Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends

This report contains Annual Median Home Price Appreciation Rates, Market Values by City, Bedroom Count and Price Segment in addition to Luxury Home Sales & Where Best to Look in Your Price Range. Enjoy this Mid-Year 2018 Report.

Marin, SF, CA & U.S.
Median Home Price Trends

Annual Median Sales Price Changes
by Dollar and by Percentage

Appreciation is typically viewed through the lens of percentage changes, but looking at dollar-value increases is another angle that is sometimes more interesting. Below are charts measuring appreciation by both parameters.

Comparing the first half of 2018 to 2017, the Marin median house sales price increased by an astounding $135,000. However, it is not a given that the second half of the year will see home price appreciation at similar rates: Prices could indeed increase further, or they might plateau or even tick down instead. For the last 7 years, spring has typically been the most feverish selling season of the year and has often powered most of the appreciation occurring over the full year.

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less, and it is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as changes in inventory or in luxury home sales. Sometimes median sales prices in a particular community fluctuate without great meaningfulness. This is especially true in smaller towns with relatively few sales and wide ranges of sales prices. A specific comparative market analysis of a particular property is sometimes the only way to gauge appreciation trends.

Home Value Appreciation by City

Median Sales Prices
2011 through Mid-2018

Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
2012 through Mid-2018, Selected Cities

Home Sales & Prices by City & Bedroom Count

Reflecting 12 Months Sales through Mid-2018

There are also tables available for Marin 2-bedroom and 6-bedroom house sales, and for 3-bedroom condo sales, which we are happy to provide upon request.

Where Best to Look in Your Price Range
Home Sales by City & Price Segment

Luxury Home Sales by City

City Sales Breakdowns

Moving north from the Golden Gate Bridge
to the Sonoma County border

Coastal and western Marin communities are small with relatively few home sales in any 12 month period, but we can provide more information on their sales and prices upon request.

Additional reports can be found here: Paragon Main Reports Page

Please let us know if you have questions
or if we can be of assistance in any other way.

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

Marin County Market Prices & Trends

Before diving into prices and trends in individual city markets in this month’s report, these four charts are overviews for Marin County market. In April 2018, the median house sales price hit a new peak price, slightly above the previous high achieved in May of 2017. Since median home sales prices often hit their annual high points in May – illustrated by the gold columns in the first chart – we may well see another increase before spring is over.

Marin Market Dynamics by City

Though we tend to speak of the real estate market as a single reality, in fact, market size and dynamics vary considerably by community and price segment. As further context to the analyses below, here are links to 2 charts from our April report illustrating home prices and price per square foot values by city: Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot Values

Remember that value statistics can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as seasonality, changes in the luxury or new-construction markets, or fluctuations in inventory available to purchase.

Though not yet reflected in the chart below, median sales prices have continued to increase in 2018.

Many more market analyses can be found further down this web page and via these links:

Paragon Main Reports Page
Marin County Home Price Trends by City
Marin County Demographics
Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets
Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets
Article: 30+ Years of SF Bay Area Real Estate Cycles

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

Marin Market Report: What City’s Median Home Price Appreciated by $1 Million since 2011?

Before diving into prices and trends in individual city markets, these three charts are overviews for Marin County. In April 2018, the median house sales price hit a new peak price, slightly above the previous high achieved in May of 2017. Since median prices often hit their annual high points in May – illustrated by the gold columns in the first chart – we may see another increase before spring is over.

Marin Market Dynamics by City

Though we tend to speak of the real estate market as a single reality, in fact, market size and dynamics vary considerably by community and price segment. As further context to the analyses below, here are links to 2 charts from our April report illustrating median prices and price per square foot values by city:

Median House Sales Prices by City
Average Dollar per Square Foot Values

Remember that these general statistics can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as seasonality, changes in the luxury or new-construction markets, or simply significant fluctuations in the inventory available to purchase.

Overbidding percentages have typically – but not always – been higher in more affordable home markets.

Many of the statistics in the next 2 charts would be considered incredibly low – indicating feverish markets – by any historical measure.

Additional reading can be found here:

Paragon Main Reports Page
Marin County Demographics
Sonoma County Market Report
Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets
Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets
30+ Years of SF Bay Area Real Estate Cycles

Please let us know if you have questions or if we can be of assistance in any other way.

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

Marin Median Home Prices Hit New Highs

Consumer confidence is still soaring, and buyers continue to push aside concerns regarding recent financial market volatility, federal tax law changes affecting Bay Area homeowners, and interest rate increases, to fuel heated markets throughout Marin.

In Q1 2018, the Marin median house sales price of $1,325,000 was 10% above the Q1 2017 price of $1,200,000, and a tad above the previous peak reached in Q2 2017. The median condo sales price jumped 18% on a year-over-year basis, and was 6% higher than the recent Q4 2017 high. The market for homes under $2m is particularly feverish with days on market and months supply of inventory hitting 2 year lows in March. Prices usually increase from Q1 to Q2 as the spring selling season really gets going. It will be interesting to see what happens this year.

Marin Median Home Sales Prices by Quarter
since 2012

Median sales prices often fluctuate by quarter or season.
Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.

Marin Median House Prices by Year
since 1990

Long-Term Home Price Trends
Bay Area vs. National Appreciation since 1987
per CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

The Case-Shiller Index does not use median sales prices to measure appreciation, but instead employs its own algorithm. This chart compares the national home price appreciation trend with that for high-price-tier houses in the 5-county SF Metro Area. The high price tier applies best to most of the markets in Central-Southern Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo.

In this chart, home prices in January 2000 are designated at a value of 100, thus the reading of 248 in December 2017 signifies a price that has appreciated 148% in the 18 years since then. Notice how similar the national and Bay Area trend lines are, with appreciable variations occurring after the 1989 earthquake, during the dotcom bubble and crash, and during the most recent Bay Area high tech boom.

As always, market dynamics often vary significantly by specific location, property type and price segment, and median prices are often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value (such as fluctuations in luxury home and new construction sales, and in the average size of homes sold). Late reported sales may affect the median sales prices illustrated in the quarterly chart, though typically only to a minor degree.

A condensed version of our report on the ups and downs in the market over recent decades: SF Bay Area Real Estate Cycles

Marin Home Values
by City & Town

Sales Reported to MLS, 10/1/17 – 4/6/18

Below is a glance at recent house median prices and average dollar per square foot values broken out by community, for sales reported to MLS in the last 6 months or so – basically since autumn sales began to close in early October.

Median House Sales Prices

Average Dollar per Square Foot Values

Marin Median House Sizes
Square Footage by Community

Median home square footage varies markedly from town to town, and the differences in size gives important context to the differences in median prices and average dollar per square foot values. Note that median home sizes in communities with relatively low numbers of expensive and very expensive home sales – such as Belvedere and Ross in particular – can fluctuate significantly from period to period.

Marin Market Seasonality

The market has just begun what is typically the busiest selling season of the year, as new listings pour onto the market, and buyers jump on those listings.

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
within 30 Days (i.e. very quickly)

It is not unusual for more expensive markets to have lower percentages since higher priced homes often take longer, on average, to sell. Not only are there fewer buyers in higher price segments, but overpricing becomes a larger issue, as will be illustrated in the chart following the one below.

Home Pricing & Overpricing

For home listings under $2m, the difference between the median list price and the median sales price is quite small, less than 5%, though when looking at listings that do not sell, but expire instead, the difference swells to 13%. But for homes over that price threshold, the differences get much more striking: The median list price is almost 25% higher than the median sales price, and there is an astounding 46% difference between median sales price and the median asking price of those expensive homes that do not sell at all.

Generally speaking, sellers and listing agents in the luxury home segment are much more prone to overpricing their listings beyond what buyers are willing to contemplate paying. Even the most beautiful home has a fair market value based on a rational comparative market analysis.

The Facts Regarding Bay Area
Migration, Population & Employment Trends

Alarmist Media Reports Forecast Doom for Bay Area

Many semi-hysterical articles were published in March regarding Bay Area residents fleeing in droves, that more people are leaving than arriving, that Silicon Valley is over, and this may spell disaster for the region. Wow, that sounds very bad – but is not true: Though the rate of growth has considerably slowed from the torrid pace of recent years – which is probably a good thing, since the Bay Area is now bursting at the seams – more people are still arriving than leaving, and population and employment numbers are still increasing. Our report, Will the Last Person Leaving the Bay Area Please Turn Off the Lights covers this topic in much greater detail.

Here are 3 of the charts from our full article, based on recent U.S. census and CA state employment data.

Net domestic and foreign migration in and out of the SF Metro Area,
natural population increases and annual net population growth

The SF Bay Area population continued to increase in 2017,
though slowing from the feverish growth rates of previous years.

The Bay Area continues to be a high-paying-job-creating machine,
though hiring intermittently speeds up or slows down.

Mortgage Interest Rates

Interest rate changes are one of many factors we reviewed in a recent report Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets. It may be that fears of impending rate increases are helping to fuel the strong buyer demand we are seeing so far in 2018.

MEDIAN List Rents by County
Short-Term Trends since 2011

Additional reports can be found here: Paragon Main Reports Page

Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way.

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

Marin Real Estate Market – A Strong Start to 2018

So far in 2018, the market seems to have mostly brushed aside concerns about increasing home prices, rising interest rates, stock market volatility and new federal tax law changes. It is still too early to come to definitive conclusions about where the year is going, but right now, in most market segments, buyer demand remains very strong for a limited supply of listings. This is especially true in the more affordable home segments, a dynamic playing out around the Bay Area. Of course, whatever the price segment, how buyers respond to a particular listing depends on the specific property and its location, appeal, preparation, marketing and pricing: Some listings sell very quickly, some only sell after price reductions, and, even in a hot market, some do not sell at all.

Home Value Appreciation
Year-over-Year Comparisons

Marin year over year home price appreciation

The 16% year-over-year jump in median sales prices is unusually high and should probably be taken with a grain of salt until substantiated over a longer period of sales. The 7% increase in average dollar per square foot values is probably closer, but possibly a tad low as an indicator of recent home-value appreciation. (Median sales price and average price per square foot appreciation rates sometimes do not move in parallel when the mix of homes sold appreciably varies – for example, in average home size – from one period to the next.) What is indisputable is that significant market appreciation has continued over the past year, and perhaps accelerated over the last 4 or 5 months. We will know more once the spring selling season really gets going in earnest.

Home Values by Lot Size

In San Francisco, a house worth $1m can sit next to one worth $4m, each on its own narrow, 25-foot-wide, 2500 square foot lot, but in Marin, with more land to stretch out on, home values correlate to a surprising degree with lot size, as illustrated below. Which does not mean this applies to every home in the county, and of course, in Marin, considerable percentages of lots can consist of steep hillside land. Steep hillsides often bring lovely views, while, on the other hand, good-sized, flat yards are highly prized as well.

Additional Chart: Marin Home Sales by Era of Construction

Appreciation by City & Town
by Year

The next 3 charts look at house value appreciation in cities and towns around the area, from most affordable, to more expensive, to most expensive.

In the most expensive communities, median sales prices sometimes bounce around without great meaningfulness due to the quantities of sales being relatively low, and to the very wide range of home sales prices. That said, it is also true that the greatest pressure of buyer demand in recent years has been in the more affordable home segments – affordable by Marin standards – and appreciation in those communities has typically been more consistent since 2015.

Median House Sales Prices
by City since 2010

Average Price per Square Foot House Values
by City since 2012

Supply & Demand Statistics

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
& Average Days on Market (DOM)

As seen below, as measured by two classic statistics of supply and demand, the market in recent months has certainly not softened in comparison to the last 2 years, and according to Months Supply of Inventory and the Percentage of Listings Selling within 30 Days (the second chart down), it has become appreciably stronger.

Listings Selling within 30 Days
Year-over-Year Comparisons

Active Listings on Market
by Month & by City

This next chart illustrates both the seasonality of the market and the size of the respective city markets in Marin County. We are just now entering the time of year when inventory swells to fuel the spring selling season. The 3 biggest home markets are San Rafael, Novato and Mill Valley. Tiburon is a smaller market, but now constitutes the biggest luxury home market in the county. Some Marin markets – such as in Belvedere, Ross, Kentfield and Larkspur – are very small, but very expensive.

Additional Chart: Marin Sales Volumes by City & Town

Sales, Price Reductions
& Listing That Do Not Sell

General Market Listings under $2m

The last 12 months have been a strong market in Marin real estate, and the great majority of sales under $2m sold very quickly, and averaged a sales price over asking price. Those listings that had to go through price reductions before selling spent an average of 9 weeks longer on the market. And then for every 8 to 9 listings that sold, 1 listing expired and was withdrawn from the market, typically because buyers deemed the property overpriced. This is a very low ratio of listings that do not sell.

Marin Luxury Home Market

Number of New Listings Coming on Market
& Number of Active Luxury Listings by City

Just as in San Francisco, the luxury home market in Marin is fiercely seasonal, with the market slowly waking up in the first two months of the year; soaring in spring, the dominant period for high-end listings and sales; slowing way down for the mid-late summer doldrums; spiking back up for the short, intense autumn selling season; and finally plunging for the winter holidays.

Additional Chart: Marin 2017 Luxury Home Sales by City

Luxury Home Sales, Price Reductions
& Listings That Do Not Sell

This chart illustrates the difference between high-end listings the market deems appealing and fairly priced – on average, selling quickly for full list price – and those that have to go through price reductions prior to selling (on average, an extra 14 weeks on the market), and then those that do not sell at all, but expire and withdrawn from the market. The ratio of listings that do not sell – 1 expired listing for every 3 that sell – is much higher in the luxury segment than in the general market, and this has everything to do with both demand and pricing (or overpricing).

Rising Mortgage Interest Rates
Short-Term Trends

Long-Term Trends

Long-Term Mortgage Interest Rate Trends

Debt in America

One of the macro-economic factors of concern is that debt levels, of virtually every kind, are hitting new highs in the country (and in the world). This has been heavily subsidized by the historically low interest rates prevailing in recent years, but rates appear to be headed upward, and increasing debt often plays a big role in market cycles.

Debt Taken On to Invest in Financial Markets
(Often a Sign of Investor Over-Exuberance)

Household Non-Housing Debt
Credit Cards, Student Loans, Car Financing

Household Mortgage Debt Service Ratio

The amount of total mortgage debt in the country is now about the same as at its last peak in 2008 (not illustrated on this chart), but because of the plunge in interest rates since then, the ratio of mortgage debt service to disposable income was close to an all-time low in mid-2017. Interest rates have been rising since then, but are still about 30% lower than in 2007. The good news is that so much of mortgage debt in America is now in fixed-rate loans at very low interest rates, which adds much stability to economic conditions, a stability grievously lacking at the time of the 2008 financial markets crash.

Link to additional charts on debt

Additional reading for those interested:

Paragon Main Real Estate Reports Page
Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets
Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets
San Francisco & Bay Area Demographics

Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way.

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

A Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets

Our newly updated median home price maps for Marin, Diablo Valley & Lamorinda, and Wine Country markets in addition to San Francisco by neighborhood. To access them, click on the map image below and then roll your cursor over the maps on the webpage.

Bay-Area-Home-Price-Map_screenshot_V2.jpg

Bay Area Q4 2017 Median House Sales Prices

San Francisco Bay Area Median Home Sales Prices

Bay Area 2017 Median Condo Sales Prices

San Francisco Bay Area Condo Median Prices

One cannot draw many conclusions regarding the new year market by looking at January data, whose low volume of sales mostly reflects offers accepted in December, however, so far, it appears that the low-inventory/ strong-buyer-demand dynamic is continuing in 2018. One recurring situation in recent years is that buyers jump back into the market in January in larger numbers than sellers getting their homes listed to sell – setting up a mismatch between supply and demand. Typically, many more listings will start pouring onto the market in February and March, and a much better idea regarding where the market is heading in 2018 will be possible once spring selling season data starts coming in.

Since questions constantly arise as to how one development or another is affecting or may affect Bay Area real estate markets – new tax laws, the high-tech boom, interest rates, financial markets, new home construction, climate change, and so on – our chief market analyst has made an attempt to identify and quantify the factors currently at play: Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Real Estate Markets

This report will focus on Bay Area trends, but other reports are available via these links: Marin County Market Report *** Marin Home Price Trends by City *** Sonoma County Report *** San Francisco Report

Year-over-Year Home Price Appreciation Rates
Comparing 2017 Median Sales Prices to 2016 Prices

San Francisco Bay Area Home Price Appreciation

Additional chart: Bay Area Median Home Price Appreciation since 1990

Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
& What You Get for $1 Million in the Bay Area

San Francisco Bay Area Dollar per square foot values

Your great aunt gives you a check for a million dollars to buy a home, so you go down to the real estate store to fill your cart. Below are some examples of how much home you would get for your money at 2017 average dollar per square foot rates: In Palo Alto, you could buy 626 square feet of home, and in Vallejo, 3817 square feet, with many other options in between.

Bay-Area_SqFt_for-1m_by-city.jpg

Bay Area Luxury Home Markets

Though San Francisco is a major player in luxury home sales, Silicon Valley – Santa Clara & San Mateo Counties together – has over 3.5 times as many homes selling for $2m and above. All 3 counties have similar average dollar per square foot house values in this high-price category. SF dominates the luxury condo market, and these condos, on average, sell at the highest per square foot values in the Bay Area. Marin, Alameda and central Contra Costa Counties have smaller luxury home segments, but you start to get more for your money.

Bay-Area_LuxHome-Sales_2m-plus_by-County.jpg

Market Dynamics Overviews

Bay-Area-All-Home-Sales-by-County.jpg

The decline in active listings available to purchase has played a significant role in pressurizing the market in recent years, especially as buyer demand has increased over the same period during which supply has dropped.

Bay-Area_Active-Listings_since-2012_NAR.jpg

Since median sales prices are so often quoted and compared, it adds context to look at the average size of houses in the different markets. (Comparing median prices to average sizes is not ideal, but you get the idea.)

Bay-Area_Avg-House-Size_by-County.jpg

New Housing Construction

This chart below from the November 2017 Housing Inventory Report issued by the SF Planning Department is for 2016, but illustrates how new housing construction in Alameda County has recently accelerated ahead of San Francisco and Santa Clara. Our larger analysis of this report, which focuses mostly on San Francisco, can be found here: SF New Home Construction Report

New-Construction_by-County.jpg

Days on Market, Overbidding Asking Prices
& Months Supply of Inventory

Bay-Area_Days-on-Market_by-County.jpg

Bay-Area_SP-OP-without-price-reduction.jpg

Bay-Area_MSI-Trends_SFD-Condo.jpg

Interest Rate Trends

Interest rate changes will certainly be one of the main factors to keep an eye on in 2018, as they play a huge role in housing affordability.

Short-term_30-Year-Rate-Trends.jpg

Bay Area Unemployment Rate Trends

Bay-Area_Unemployment-Rates.jpg

Bay Area Housing Affordability Trends

The CAR Housing Affordability Index, of which the trend lines since 1991 are charted below, estimates the percentage of households who can afford to purchase a median priced house in their county, based on a 20% downpayment. The big factors in this analysis are prevailing household incomes, interest rates, and, of course, quarterly median house sales prices. It should be noted that half of home sales are, by definition, below the median sales price, and that if one included condos in the equation, that would add substantially to affordability percentages.

For Q1 2018, the Index will attempt to factor in the effects of the new federal income tax law limiting mortgage interest, property tax and state income tax deductions, which will presumably reduce affordability percentages further. As seen below, many Bay Area counties are already getting close to historic lows, clearly one of our biggest social and economic challenges.

Affordability_Bay-Area-Counties_Chart.jpg

County to County, Metro Area to Metro Area
& State to State Migration Trends
Bay Area County-to-County Migration

Though people from all over the country and world migrate to and from the Bay Area, the greatest flow is actually between the local counties themselves. In net migration numbers, amid all the back and forth, people are, generally speaking, flowing from the core, most expensive counties to adjacent, somewhat less expensive counties, and then to even more affordable counties outside the inner Bay Area. However, the inner core counties, where the high-tech boom has been most concentrated, attract significant immigration from outside the Bay Area, state and U.S., which is why their population numbers have continued to grow. Note: This chart does not include Santa Clara County, though much of its migration patterns can be seen in the data of the other counties.

Bay-Area_County-to-County_Annual-Migration.jpg

U.S. Metro Area to Metro Area Migration

This chart pertains to immigration in and out of the 5-county San Francisco metro area, which does not include Santa Clara to its south. Between U.S. metro areas, more people are leaving the SF metro than arriving, but that deficit has been more than made up for by substantial numbers of foreign immigrants. These numbers, however, pre-date the much more hostile view of immigration by the current administration, so we will have to wait and see what effects derive from that change. Looking at net metro-area migration, more people come to the SF metro area from Santa Clara County, Southern California, New York, Chicago and Boston. And more peopleleave the SF metro area to go to other (less expensive) CA counties east and north of the Bay Area, and to metro areas in Texas, Nevada, Oregon and Washington State. The exodus is made up of both people changing jobs, and retirees, though they tend to go to different places.

Bay-Area-Migration-Trends.jpg

If you want to read about state to state migration patterns, our recent article is here: California Migration Trends

All our Bay Area reports and articles can be found here: Market Trends & Analysis

One of our recent and popular reports: San Francisco & Bay Area Demographics

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, and longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. It is impossible to know how median prices apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. All numbers in this report are to be considered approximate.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

Marin Real Estate – New Year Report

Another strong year in real estate, with continued median home price appreciation in Marin, and indeed throughout the Bay Area.

Marin, SF, CA, National Home Price Trends

Marin Median Home Price Trends by Year

Additional chart: Bay Area Median Home Price Trends by County

The chart below, based on CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index data, tracks general price appreciation trends of house in the upper third of prices in the 5-county SF Metro Area (such as those mostly found in SF, Marin, San Mateo and Diablo Valley-Lamorinda). Case-Shiller does not base their calculations on median sales price changes but uses its own proprietary algorithm. This chart has been simplified to only reflect percentage increases and decreases from various points in real estate cycles. Since it covers 5 counties, it is a very generalized illustration.

Case-Shiller San Francisco Bay Area Home Price Trends

Link to our full report on the Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Link to our report on Bay Area real estate cycles

Moving into 2018, there are a lot of spinning plates in the air – local, state, national and international factors that could affect markets. 2017 saw real estate markets surge and financial markets soar. After some cooling from mid-2015 to mid-2016, the Bay Area high-tech economy surged back into high speed, with companies leasing enormous spaces in newly built office buildings – which they will presumably fill with new hires. Unemployment rates have flirted with historic lows, and 2018 may see some major local IPOs, which could create great quantities of new wealth. The Bay Area still has probably the most dynamic, innovation-fueled economy in the world and indisputably remains among the great metro areas on the planet – but there are social, economic, political and environmental challenges looming as well.

Congress delivered an unpleasant holiday present to many Bay Area residents in the form of federal tax law changes limiting the deductibility of mortgage interest and state and local taxes. The effect of these changes make living in an already high cost-of-living area more costly for many residents, and also reduce some of the financial incentives of homeownership, especially for more expensive homes. Predictions on the effect of these tax changes on local housing markets and the business environment range from one extreme (economic devastation) to the other (shrug), and the state legislature is currently working on bills that might blunt the negative financial impacts. It is too early to guess how it will all play out. We live in interesting times.

This report will review real estate trends in 2017, and some of the economic factors that impacted them. Most of the charts are self-explanatory, so we have kept the text to a minimum. Towards the end is an extensive analysis of home prices by city and by bedroom count.

Marin year over year home price appreciation

Marin Annual Homes Sales Volume

Marin County Sales by City

Marin real estate market seasonality

Marin Homes Selling Quickly

Marin Average Days on Market by Year

Marin Sales Price to List Price Percentage

SF Bay Area Months Supply of Inventory

California Migration Trends in 2016

Link to our analysis of domestic and foreign migration trends

Link to our survey of Bay Area demographics

S&P 500 Index by Year

Annual Mortgage Rate Trends

Marin County Housing Affordability

San Francisco Bay Area Rent Trends

 

Marin Luxury Homes Market

Marin Luxury Home Sales by City

Marin Luxury Home Sales by Year

Marin County Home Prices by City & Bedroom Count
Best Places to Look for a Home in Your Price Range

Marin homes under a million dollars

Marin Homes under 2 million

Marin 2-bedroom house sales by city

Marin 3-bedroom house prices by city

Marin 3-bedroom house prices - B

Marin 4-bedroom home prices

Marin 5-bedroom home prices

Marin 6-bedroom home prices

Drilling down beyond the general statistic of median sales price, these charts give a better idea of how likely one is to find a home of a particular size within a price segment in specific Marin County cities.

Tiburon Belvedere home prices

Mill Valley Sausalito Home Sales

Ross Kentfield Larkspur Homes Sales

Corte Madera Greenbrae Homes Sales

San Rafael Anselmo Fairfax home sales by price range

Novato home sales by price

Marin condo sales by city

Marin 2-bedroom condo sales

Marin 3-bedroom condo sales

All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

Please let me know if you have any questions, or if I can be of assistance in any way. Wishing you and yours a safe, healthy, happy and prosperous New Year!

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

What You May Not Know about Marin & the San Francisco Metropolitan Area

While waiting for final data on the feverish 2017 real estate market to arrive, we thought to step back from homes and, instead, look at the people who live in them. Compiled solely for your entertainment and, perhaps, mild edification.

Depending on data source, these analyses pertain to either Marin County alone, or to a multi-county San Francisco Metro Area, as delineated on each chart.

Our latest analyses of the Marin real estate market can still be found here: Marin Market Report

Ethnicity, Race & Ancestry

Religious and Spiritual Practices & Beliefs
Bay Area Statistics

Education and Income by Education

Employment, Wages & Commuting

The Bureau of Labor statistics analyzes average annual wages for over 700 local occupations in the Bay Area. Below is a sampling of approximately 50 of them.

Spending Money
Bay Area Statistics

Voting

The Ages of Marin

Marin Land Use

Marin Housing Affordability Trends

Selected Statistics by Marin County ZIP CODE

Income, Age, Education & Foreign Birth

Unsurprisingly, degree of education correlates strongly with household income figures.

How Americans Spend the Hours of Their Days
National Statistics

The data herein is from a wide variety of third party sources deemed reliable – much of it from national, state and local government data sources – but it may contain errors, and is subject to revision. When the term San Francisco Metro Area is used, it signifies that the data includes multiple Bay Area counties, however different organizations sometimes vary in which counties they include in that description. If different sources disagreed, we chose the data we thought most reasonable. Different analyses often pertain to somewhat different time periods. All data should be considered approximate or good-faith estimates.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group

Marin County Home Prices & Market Trends

2017 has been a high demand, low supply market in Marin and throughout the Bay Area, with median sales price increases pretty much across the board. As mentioned in earlier reports, the greatest pressure of buyer demand has generally been focused on the more affordable market segments, as defined within each overall county market. The recent terrible fires in the wine country will only add to pressures on both the resale and rental markets in the county, especially in its northern communities. Typically, and we will see how it plays out this year, the market begins to go into hibernation just before Thanksgiving and does not really wake up until mid-January – this is especially true of higher-end home segments – but the mid-winter slowdown period can be a good time to buy, as we discuss further in this report.

Median Home Price Appreciation Trends
for Selected Cities & for the County Overall

Average Dollar per Square Foot Trends
for Selected Marin Cities & Towns

Let us know if you would like trend data on a city or town not included on the charts above.

This chart below based on CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller data compares the appreciation of the more expensive Bay Area home markets (blue line) – such as most of Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo – to the overall national trend (green line), going back to 1987. It is interesting to see where our local appreciation rates have diverged from national rates: The divergence since 2012 has been particularly striking.

Note that the numbers on this chart all refer to a January 2000 price of 100. So, the latest Bay Area reading of 238 means that home prices here have appreciated, according to Case-Shiller, by 138% since January 2000. National home prices appreciated by 95% during that period.


 


 

Market Overviews
The largest market segment in Marin is that for 3-bedroom houses.
(In San Francisco, the largest segment is of 2-bedroom condos.)


 


 

Luxury Home Sales

Luxury home markets generally cooled around the Bay Area from late 2015 to autumn 2016 – due to all the financial market volatility (Chinese stock market crash, oil price crash, Brexit) and political uncertainty during that period – but recovered in 2017, just as the stock market has surged dramatically higher since the presidential election.


 


 

Market Statistics by City & Town

Corte Madera, Greenbrae and Larkspur continue to occupy the sweet spot in the Marin market due to a number of issues, including the combination of being less expensive than some adjacent communities, and having easier commutes to the city than more affordable towns and cities further west or north. (Of course, they are also lovely places to live, but that applies to just about anywhere in the county.) Note that market heat is a matter of degree: Almost every community market in Marin is very strong when compared to historical trends. The statistics of several other cities and towns are very close to those of Corte Madera, Greenbrae and Larkspur, and small differences are not particularly significant when working with general analyses such as these below.

As noted on several of the charts, it is not unusual for the highest priced markets to have somewhat softer statistics: The pool of qualified buyers is much smaller, and luxury homes are typically more prone to overpricing, both of which affect buyer response, time on market and so on.

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared
to the supply of home listings available to purchase. Most of
these MSI readings are very, very low .

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
The higher the percentage the hotter the demand.
Most of these percentages are very, very high.

Average Days on Market
Generally speaking, the fewer the days on market, the stronger the demand.

Market Heat by PRICE SEGMENT
as Measured by Months Supply of Inventory


 


 

Seasonality & the Real Estate Market
Listing activity, buyer demand and price reductions
all ebb and flow dramatically by season.

Advantages to Buying during the Mid-November to Mid-January Slowdown

Just before Thanksgiving the market typically begins to rapidly subside until starting to revive about 7-8 weeks later. Many buyers simply check out during this period, but there are good reasons for staying engaged – mainly the possibility of getting a much better deal. In late October and November, sellers begin reducing prices in large numbers as they try to capture the attention of buyers before the big slowdown: Buyers should treat these as brand new listings and take a new look. Competition between buyers drops dramatically during the mid-winter period, and since competitive bidding is the biggest single factor behind higher prices, its decline can mean significant savings. Fewer buyers also mean that sellers are often more willing to negotiate: Throw offers in at whatever price you feel is right and see where they go. It is true that the number of new listings coming on markets plunges, but there are still hundreds of listings to consider for those willing to stay in the game.

It is unclear at this time, how the wine country fires may affect market dynamics during what is usually by far the slowest season of the year.


Three Suggestions: As recent events have reminded us, disasters can arrive suddenly and with little warning, so: 1) Contact your insurance agent to make sure your policy is updated to cover the full, current value of your home and possessions. 2) This website contains useful information on being prepared and having a plan in the event disaster strikes: Disaster Preparation Guide & Resources. 3) Many communities now have early-warning communications programs that can automatically email, text or call you in the event of a disaster, and then provide useful ongoing updates on the situation. Check with your county and city governments to see what is available, and sign up ASAP.

Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way. We have dozens of other analyses specific to the Marin County real estate market.

All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports


It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group